Hornets Hype

Here are things you will hear: “That’s good Playoff basketball.”  Or “a good hard Playoff foul.”  Perhaps “they tend to let them play in the Playoffs.”  Bullshit.  Bullshit.  And…..bullshit.  Maybe I’m crazy, but I’ve never read the Playoff Rulebook.  I guess it’s different than the one they use in the regular season.  Oh wait, it’s not.  Well then, listen closely.  A foul is a foul is a foul.  Yet there is a long-standing Myth that teams like the Celtics, Rockets, Cavs, or surprisingly, and at least for this year, the Nuggets, play good defense and this is proven in the Playoffs.  But if you’re slapping elbows and hands to get steals, making body contact though your hands are clean, or if you in any way impede the offensive player’s motion when you’re not set, it’s a foul.  Period.

The concept that refs should “just let them play” in the Playoffs is insane.  Listen, like anything involving logic, which is pretty much everything, you can isolate the truth through variables.  Imagine someone trying to convince you that their team could field six players against your team’s five because it’s the Playoffs and they’re just willing to take that extra step to win.  It would be absurd.  Okay, but why?  Why is it absurd?  Well, first of all, it violates the rules.  Second, it gives the other team an unfair advantage.  Third, it’s pretty fucking obvious.  Okay.  Well, then, what about if you let a defensive player hack an offensive player?  That’s against the rules, gives the defensive player an unfair advantage, and generally is pretty fucking obvious.  Ultimately, the result is no different than fielding an extra player.  Is one more obvious than the other?  Sure.  But is one more excusable than the other?  No. Both are ILLEGAL.

The general belief that the Playoffs should be treated this way is bad enough.  But what really aggravates the situation is that some teams, who are perceived as good defensive teams, are less likely to be called for fouls, even if they commit them, because it is assumed that they are just playing good defense, and they get the benefit of the doubt.  But the fallacy of this logic is that they very well may be perceived to be good defenders because they’ve gotten away with it in the past.  It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Also, when you call plays different in the Playoffs, then all of sudden, players who have gotten used to a certain level of contact have no idea what they can or cannot do on the floor.  This freezes them, and makes them appear to be slow, indecisive, or just poor defenders.  Yet, this is something attributable to poor officiating more than personal deficiencies.

Even worse, this kind of game calling sets the scene for chaos.  Or worse, for someone to get hurt.  Because as we’ve seen with, significantly this year, the Nuggets, when you let a team manhandle the other, two things happen.  One, the other team gets frustrated, and tends to commit harder fouls, which only exacerbates things.  (I know, it’s no excuse, but to psychologically frustrate one team to the glee of the other is in itself an unfair advantage, especially in basketball, the most psychological of sports.)  But beyond that, the team creating the contact in the first place, once not getting whistled for what is ostensibly illegal contact, tends to keep creating harder and harder contact, because when you’re not called for a foul, the tendency is to try and see how far you can push things, to see what you can get away with.  So these teams keep fouling harder and harder, until all of a sudden flagrants and techs are flying, bodies are flying, people are getting hurt, and the refs have lost all semblance of control.  It’s ridiculous.

Yet, the NBA and their TV mouthpieces just pretend it’s so hard, and the Fates forbid anyone but Jeff Van Gundy criticize the refs (and even for that, Stern once again, took an on camera jab at JVG; Stern is like the Borg: resistance to him is futile).  Sure, basketball happens fast live.  No doubt.  It is hard to call.  But it can be better.  Don’t be fooled.  And the changes aren’t that complex.  1. Call it the same way over the course of the regular season and the Playoffs.  2. Encourage refs to watch each others’ games and try to establish consistent calls from ref to ref.  3. Standardize when you use replay; as it is, sometimes they use it and sometimes they don’t, and it’s insane how some obvious calls are missed because refs would rather huddle for 60 seconds and talk it over to get it wrong rather than take 30 seconds to look at the screen right off the court to get it right.  That the NBA doesn’t do these things doesn’t just do a disservice to the players and the fans, but the game itself.

So when people tell you about “Playoff Basketball,” tell them to fuck off.  Hitting shots with a guy in your face is Playoff Basketball.  Trying to fight through dudes hacking you?  That’s bullshit.  We all deserve better.

The Hype has been quiet lately.  Sorry.  But the grind of the 82-game season and the subsequent Playoffs emotional rollercoaster doesn’t just take its toll on the players, but sometimes those that follow it.  I wish I was a professional journalist, someone who did this for a living, who had all day to scour media sources for information, to talk to players and coaches, and, finally, to write.  But I don’t.  I don’t get paid for this.  I have another job, and it takes a lot out of you to work long hours and then spend almost all your free time on the Hornets.  Don’t get me wrong, I love basketball, I love the Hornets, but the Hype too needs a break.

Never fear though, ticktock6 and I have been watching the other games on and off, and with a much more objective eye, we have plenty of observations we’d like to share in the coming days and weeks, especially, as we’re one of the few sites out there accountable to no one.  We say what we say because we believe at the end of the day that it’s true.  Even if no one else will say it.  Like, for example, that Lebron IS overrated, or that the officiating is broken on a universal level but IS fixable.  Also, we love to give you all a forum to talk about those things.

So there you go.  Two sneak peaks.  More to come.  Stay tuned.

Take your pick.  When it comes to the New Orleans Hornets, almost every criticism has been leveled at our team this year.  They don’t score, they don’t play defense, they don’t rebound, they have no bench, they shoot 3s too much, no rotation on D, no ball movement on O, etc.  So what changed from a year ago, the #2 seed, and being one game from the Western Conference finals?

No one knows.  But I’ll tell you what I’m not going to do.  I’m not going to pull stats.  Plenty of blogs do that.  Plus, after a year of comparisons, I’m not convinced the answer can be found in numbers.  Instead, I”m going to work through a logical progression of what has changed.

First of all, and perhaps most understatedly, we lost assistant coach Darrell Walker to Detroit.  Yet one more thing Dumars fucked up for us.  The strange thing is, we didn’t replace him.  Was that a cost saving move?  I have to think the loss is significant, but I don’t have enough of an in to know what.  Any comments on that are welcome.

With that out of the way, let me say that one of the biggest problems I’ve noticed with the Hornets this year is the propensity to give up large runs.  14-0 here, 22-5 there.  They’re brutal.  Especially when you consider the 16-0 run we gave up in the second quarter of a fifteen point loss pretty much explains the loss itself.  Think about it, that blowout loss was really a tie-game with one bad stretch.  So why does it happen?  Ticktock6 said to me the other day that she thought we had much better offensive ball movement last year.  I think she’s right.  So what changed?  Our roster is almost the same.  Most of the coaches are the same.  Shouldn’t our flow on both ends of the floor be the same?  Well, here’s the breakdown of the difference, personnel-wise:

• Losses: Jannero Pargo, Bonzi Wells, Chris Anderson, Mike James
• Additions: Devin Brown, James Posey, Sean Marks, Antonio Daniels

You’ll note these are all bench players, despite Poseys significant minutes, but Bonzi got plenty of minutes last year, too.  So how does that make our team worse, when the starters, who get most of the minutes are all still here?  The only difference is that Rasual Butler is starting for Morris Peterson.  Ironically, Butler, who was relegated to the end of the bench last year, has not only usurped Peterson’s spot, but banished Mo to the end of the bench, as well.

People like to turn to stats.  They say Butler gets more blocks, plays better defense, and otherwise is similar statistically, so it’s a no brainer they say.  He’s legitimately kept the starting spot.  But if he’s the only difference, logic dictates that there is a difference caused by him.  Whether it’s not knowing where everyone else is on the floor, a different level of trust that’s there, or his comparative knowledge of the game, I don’t know.  But I can only come to one conclusion: Morris Peterson was a better starter last year than Rasual Butler is now.  No doubt Rasual is playing well, but I still love Butler as the first guy off the bench, like Bonzi would have done for Mo last year.  Peterson earned his minutes, and has Ws to show for it.  Butler, despite his several dramatic game-winning shots this year, I’m not convinced makes us better.

Now the bench players above.  All kinds of bloggers have run stats saying Daniels is more efficient than Pargo.  I don’t believe it.  Take your stats and shove them.  Pargo was crazy.  Good crazy.  The man created chaos in the same way that Paul does, and that was a good thing.  I earlier called this the Chaos Effect.  It’s impossible to defend against, because there is no plan, just intuition.  Byron, however, doesn’t like that.  Whatever you called, it though, Pargo tore through defenses even when he wasn’t making shots, and was a constant threat to score off the bench.  That’s something we’re lacking this year.  Posey may yet prove his worth in the playoffs, but so far, I can’t say he’s won many more games for us than Bonzi.  Sadly Bonzi wanted big money, and didn’t get it.  People laugh at him because he ended up playing in China for peanuts, but he dominated there, and clearly still deserves to be in the League.  Wells was a beast once we started playing him, and I’ll always appreciate the contributions he made to our 2007-08 team.

That brings us to Anderson for Marks.  Okay, Birdman didn’t play much last year, and I like Marks, but can anyone say we didn’t make a horrible move by letting him go? And Devin Brown?  I like his hustle.  But the fact that he plays over a former starter, when the man has never had the talent to consistently start in this League is crazy.  Oh, and one other thing.  A key part of our stretch run last year was Julian Wright, who this year, barely plays because Byron is too stubborn to give him the minutes to learn how to be a better player.  Huge mistake.

So yes, we are a worse team than last year.  But here’s the funny thing.  The ingredients are all still there.  Insert Mo back into the starting line-up, and you have the same five starters from last year.  Then, you roll out the back-up line-up of Daniels, Butler, Wright, Posey, and [insert big here].  It was the athletic mix of Wright, Bonzi, and Pargo that kept opposing teams off balance last year, and that was able to lock down effectively on defense.  I don’t see how this line-up can’t do both those things.  Instead, we’ll probably continue to see Butler start, with Devin Brown, Posey, and [insert big here] coming off the bench with Daniels, while Mo and Julian sit and wonder if there are teams out there they could actually be playing for.

If asked, I’d say, yes, I believe Byron has what it takes to be a championship coach when it comes to Xs and Os.  But if he can’t figure out who his best players are, then maybe he needs to step away from the game to gain some perspective, and we need a coach who can recognize talent.  After watching every Hornets game in the last two years in some way, shape, or form, as well as various games from around the League, I feel like I’m a pretty good judge of what we have.  We can still win this.  And by “this” I mean everything.   But to start with, we need to take two in Nola and then make this Round 1 series start fresh, before going on to win in 6 or 7.  But if the Hornets don’t do that, Byron should be looking over his shoulder; and, Bower, if he’s smart, should be the guy over that shoulder.

I’m not speaking quietly.  I’m flat out saying it.  If the Hornets don’t win this series, they need a new coach.  So please, Byron, show the world the Hornets we don’t need that.  I want to believe.

The Hornets’ starting line-up October 29, 2008: Chris, Mo, Peja, David, and Tyson.   Then, when Mo was injured early in the season, Rasual Butler took over the starting role for Mo.  Though some had called for an upgrade at the two-guard, most of us realized that Morris Peterson was one of the best fifth-starters in the League (i.e., the fifth best starter).  Nonetheless, Hornets fans were pleasantly surprised when Rasual performed well in Mo’s absence.  Slowly Mo worked his knee back into shape, until he hurt his foot in a late 2008 game, and was out again.  By the time he was healthy, it was too late.  Rasual, having the best year of his career, had taken hold of the starting two guard slot.

Is it fair that a starter loses his spot due to injury?   I don’t know.  But considering Mo already played the least amount of minutes among all Hornets starters last year, we knew it wasn’t about starting.  It was about getting minutes.  To Mo’s credit, he got that, saying all along, he just wanted to contribute, to help the team, and was the consummate professional at all times, never complaining.  But here’s the rub: the minutes suddenly weren’t there.  Inexplicably, despite having the talent to make him a starter on a 56-win team, Byron Scott refused to give Mo any minutes.

Now, instead, those minutes are going to Devin Brown.  Listen, I want the Hornets to do well.  If Devin’s in, I want him to play well.  But the fact is, Mo has more talent, and history backs that up.  Even this year, an off-year by Mo’s standards, stands as testament to the fact that he should be out there.  Consider the following:

• Devin, 2008-09: 36% FG%, 29% 3FG%, 1.9 rebounds per game, 0.9 assists per game, 0.5 steals per game, and 0.1 blocks per game, while committing 1.3 fouls per game and 0.9 turnovers per game.
• Morris, 2008-09: 40% FG%, 39% 3FG%, 2.0 rebounds per game, 0.4 assists per game, 0.3 steals per game, and 0.1 blocks per game, while committing 1.2 fouls per game and 0.4 turnovers per game.

So, basically, Mo is getting more boards, the same blocks, committing less turnovers and fouls, though not getting quite as many steals or assists.  But, oh yeah, he’s hitting at shots at 4% better overall, and 10% better from 3-point range, which in Byron’s system is crucial, as its built to allow Chris’ penetration to open up shots for his shooters.

But maybe you’re thinking the statistical sample is too low given the limited minutes of each.  Better to take their career stats, then:

• Devin, Career: 41% FG%, 33% 3FG%, 2.8 rebounds per game, 1.5 assists per game, 0.6 steals per game, and 0.1 blocks per game, while committing 1.6 fouls per game and 1.1 turnovers per game.
• Morris, Career: 42% FG%, 37% 3FG%, 3.6 rebounds per game, 1.6 assists per game, 0.9 steals per game, and 0.2 blocks per game, while committing 2.3 fouls per game and 1.0 turnovers per game.

In case you’ve lost track in this melange of numbers, Mo is better at every single stat other than fouls, which considering he’s nowhere near fouling out, is irrelevant.  So what the hell is Byron thinking?

MEMO TO BYRON SCOTT: free Mo Pete.  The man has skills.  He’s a former starter.  Maybe Rasual is playing well, maybe they duplicate skills.  But what’s wrong with having the same guy come in, when you refuse to change your offensive set for your back-ups?  The case isn’t even close.  Mo Pete is the most talented, most reliable back-up you have among a bench full of inconsistent bench players, so there’s no excuse not to play him.

The stats all say you should.  Isn’t the Hornets’ success in the Playoffs more important than whatever non-basketball issues Byron might have with Mo?  It’s a rhetorical question, and the answer is YES.  So I hope you’re reading, Byron, because you’ve told us what’s wrong with Hilton’s play, the flaws in Julian’s game, but you’ve yet to justify keeping Mo on the bench in lieu of anyone, let alone Devin.  (Sorry Devin.)  Enough is enough. 

Free Mo Pete.

Undoubtedly, the Hornets look to be headed in the wrong direction, losing 4 out of their last 5 and looking unimpressive in their one win in that stretch.  Moreover, other than what might look like an anomalous win against the Spurs, their last set of wins before that five game stretch? Victories against the Clippers, Kings, Grizzlies, Warriors, T-Wolves, Bucks, Wizards, and Thunder; while in that same time, having lost to the Knicks, Nuggets, Rockets, Bulls, and Hawks.  Not the championship-caliber resume we’ve come to expect from this team, but to be fair, they’ve played most of those games without Peja and Tyson, and several without Posey.  Which is the real team?  The one that we’ve seen on the floor, or the one in our mind’s eye?  We’ll find out starting April 18th.  But I know one thing, they can win tomorrow.

A bittersweet season of ugly victories and Pyrrhic losses, where the rare times we’ve fielded all our starters we’re somewhere in the .667 win percentage, which would put us right behind the Lakers in the standing, but as things stand, we’re desperately clinging onto the sixth seed.  That said, we can still finish anywhere between fourth and eighth.  Significantly, we’ve beaten the Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets, Cavs, Magic, Heat, and just about every other team that is expected to contend, other than the Celtics and Hawks.  We know the Hornets can beat the best, but can they do it in a best of seven series?  I think so.  But we need to be more consistent.

The bottom line is, as much heat as Byron is taking right now, I think it comes down to execution. Byron’s gameplan is set and if guys hit shots and rebound, this team can beat anyone.  I said before Friday’s game that I believed the Hornets could run the table to close the season.  I was wrong.  But I think this team will defend home court.  And here’s the stat that militates in their favor: Tyson is on the final game ticket face.  Here are the stats that no one else talks about: the Hornets’ home record, by ticket face star:

• David West: .875 (7-1)
• Tyson Chandler: .857 (6-1)
• Chris Paul: .667 (6-3)
• Byron Scott: .625 (5-3)
• Peja Stojakovic: .375 (3-5)

Considering that David’s ticket face just lost its first game in two years, I wouldn’t want anyone else’s face on this ticket for the Dallas Mavericks game.  Think this is a “fictional” stat?  Not in pro sports, where players are notoriously superstitious.  Consider this, the worst record of any ticket face last year, and the only one with a losing record, Mo Pete (.400, 2-3), was also, coincidentally, on the Game 7 ticket versus San Antonio.  We all know how that turned out.  And Mo Pete is the only one to appear on last year’s tickets not to appear on this years.  I doubt that is a coincidence.

So, maybe, just maybe, this ticket somehow augurs some cosmic sense of causality, and even if it doesn’t decide the fate of our team per se, it might have a knowing read of the preordained outcome of the game and resultant the Western Conference standings.  Or not.  As you can see from the above, Tyson’s mere presence doesn’t guarantee a win, but it puts the odds in our favor.  Believe it.

Sure we want the Hornets to beat the Clippers, but we really want the Honeybees to beat the Clippers’ Spirit Dance Team.  Click on the picture and go vote!

Okay, folks.  Tough order today.  A fully healthy Spurs team against a depleted Hornets squad.  No Tyson.  No Peja.  Posey suspended.  Hilton is gimpy.  This would be a tough game at full strength, let alone with what we have.  So can the Hornets win?  I don’t know.  But I know one thing.

Chris Paul and David West have to go Nova.

No iffs ands or buts.  Well, unless we put up like 18 three-pointers, but Butler, Mo, and the rest of the cast haven’t seemed to have been putting up that many lately, let alone making them all.  But otherwise, if our two All-Stars don’t rip it up, well, it’s back to the Ledge for Hornets fans.  (Speaking of, haven’t seen those Phoenix people lately…where they at?)  But I don’t see our guys failing.  Win or lose, these two are going to leave it all out there.

CP and DX understand that this isn’t just another game to put one in the win column.  This isn’t even important because it’s a Western Conference or Divisional game.  Nope. This is the team that knocked us out of the playoffs last year.  On our home court.  In Game 7.  It’s about revenge.

We can all say that we have good “character” guys, who don’t care about things like that.  But I say that’s bullshit.  These guys are competitors.  They get angry.  They harbor dark feelings.  You may not see that side of them in interviews or at charity events, but if you watch our guys on the court, they have that dark fire in them.  So tonight, I hope they will unleash that dark side.  They’ll need it.

Hornets FAIL.  Honeybees NOT SO MUCH.  Click on the picture to influence one of the two’s chances of success.

The Hornets are a disgrace.  I don’t care that Tyson and Peja are out.  I don’t care that Hilton got injured when the ref (allegedly by accident) tripped him and sprained his ankle.  And I don’t care that our trainers apparently don’t do any exercises that strengthen our players’ ankles.  The Hornets should be deeply embarrassed.  They just lost badly to a team that gave up 140 points to the Clippers and had lost six straight.  And we are a playoff team, let alone a contender?  A joke.  I’m more horrified than the Comedian unable to deal with the biggest joke of all.

Don’t worry.  TT6 will have a new hotness bracket up soon.  At least then we’ll see something tangentially Hornets-related that doesn’t make me want to put my fist through a wall.  As they’re playing now, the Hornets don’t deserve to be in the Playoffs, and fuck it, because Stern wants Shaq in anyway.  So I say, just give it to him and the Suns.  We don’t deserve it.