Hornets Hype

Take your pick.  When it comes to the New Orleans Hornets, almost every criticism has been leveled at our team this year.  They don’t score, they don’t play defense, they don’t rebound, they have no bench, they shoot 3s too much, no rotation on D, no ball movement on O, etc.  So what changed from a year ago, the #2 seed, and being one game from the Western Conference finals?

No one knows.  But I’ll tell you what I’m not going to do.  I’m not going to pull stats.  Plenty of blogs do that.  Plus, after a year of comparisons, I’m not convinced the answer can be found in numbers.  Instead, I”m going to work through a logical progression of what has changed.

First of all, and perhaps most understatedly, we lost assistant coach Darrell Walker to Detroit.  Yet one more thing Dumars fucked up for us.  The strange thing is, we didn’t replace him.  Was that a cost saving move?  I have to think the loss is significant, but I don’t have enough of an in to know what.  Any comments on that are welcome.

With that out of the way, let me say that one of the biggest problems I’ve noticed with the Hornets this year is the propensity to give up large runs.  14-0 here, 22-5 there.  They’re brutal.  Especially when you consider the 16-0 run we gave up in the second quarter of a fifteen point loss pretty much explains the loss itself.  Think about it, that blowout loss was really a tie-game with one bad stretch.  So why does it happen?  Ticktock6 said to me the other day that she thought we had much better offensive ball movement last year.  I think she’s right.  So what changed?  Our roster is almost the same.  Most of the coaches are the same.  Shouldn’t our flow on both ends of the floor be the same?  Well, here’s the breakdown of the difference, personnel-wise:

• Losses: Jannero Pargo, Bonzi Wells, Chris Anderson, Mike James
• Additions: Devin Brown, James Posey, Sean Marks, Antonio Daniels

You’ll note these are all bench players, despite Poseys significant minutes, but Bonzi got plenty of minutes last year, too.  So how does that make our team worse, when the starters, who get most of the minutes are all still here?  The only difference is that Rasual Butler is starting for Morris Peterson.  Ironically, Butler, who was relegated to the end of the bench last year, has not only usurped Peterson’s spot, but banished Mo to the end of the bench, as well.

People like to turn to stats.  They say Butler gets more blocks, plays better defense, and otherwise is similar statistically, so it’s a no brainer they say.  He’s legitimately kept the starting spot.  But if he’s the only difference, logic dictates that there is a difference caused by him.  Whether it’s not knowing where everyone else is on the floor, a different level of trust that’s there, or his comparative knowledge of the game, I don’t know.  But I can only come to one conclusion: Morris Peterson was a better starter last year than Rasual Butler is now.  No doubt Rasual is playing well, but I still love Butler as the first guy off the bench, like Bonzi would have done for Mo last year.  Peterson earned his minutes, and has Ws to show for it.  Butler, despite his several dramatic game-winning shots this year, I’m not convinced makes us better.

Now the bench players above.  All kinds of bloggers have run stats saying Daniels is more efficient than Pargo.  I don’t believe it.  Take your stats and shove them.  Pargo was crazy.  Good crazy.  The man created chaos in the same way that Paul does, and that was a good thing.  I earlier called this the Chaos Effect.  It’s impossible to defend against, because there is no plan, just intuition.  Byron, however, doesn’t like that.  Whatever you called, it though, Pargo tore through defenses even when he wasn’t making shots, and was a constant threat to score off the bench.  That’s something we’re lacking this year.  Posey may yet prove his worth in the playoffs, but so far, I can’t say he’s won many more games for us than Bonzi.  Sadly Bonzi wanted big money, and didn’t get it.  People laugh at him because he ended up playing in China for peanuts, but he dominated there, and clearly still deserves to be in the League.  Wells was a beast once we started playing him, and I’ll always appreciate the contributions he made to our 2007-08 team.

That brings us to Anderson for Marks.  Okay, Birdman didn’t play much last year, and I like Marks, but can anyone say we didn’t make a horrible move by letting him go? And Devin Brown?  I like his hustle.  But the fact that he plays over a former starter, when the man has never had the talent to consistently start in this League is crazy.  Oh, and one other thing.  A key part of our stretch run last year was Julian Wright, who this year, barely plays because Byron is too stubborn to give him the minutes to learn how to be a better player.  Huge mistake.

So yes, we are a worse team than last year.  But here’s the funny thing.  The ingredients are all still there.  Insert Mo back into the starting line-up, and you have the same five starters from last year.  Then, you roll out the back-up line-up of Daniels, Butler, Wright, Posey, and [insert big here].  It was the athletic mix of Wright, Bonzi, and Pargo that kept opposing teams off balance last year, and that was able to lock down effectively on defense.  I don’t see how this line-up can’t do both those things.  Instead, we’ll probably continue to see Butler start, with Devin Brown, Posey, and [insert big here] coming off the bench with Daniels, while Mo and Julian sit and wonder if there are teams out there they could actually be playing for.

If asked, I’d say, yes, I believe Byron has what it takes to be a championship coach when it comes to Xs and Os.  But if he can’t figure out who his best players are, then maybe he needs to step away from the game to gain some perspective, and we need a coach who can recognize talent.  After watching every Hornets game in the last two years in some way, shape, or form, as well as various games from around the League, I feel like I’m a pretty good judge of what we have.  We can still win this.  And by “this” I mean everything.   But to start with, we need to take two in Nola and then make this Round 1 series start fresh, before going on to win in 6 or 7.  But if the Hornets don’t do that, Byron should be looking over his shoulder; and, Bower, if he’s smart, should be the guy over that shoulder.

I’m not speaking quietly.  I’m flat out saying it.  If the Hornets don’t win this series, they need a new coach.  So please, Byron, show the world the Hornets we don’t need that.  I want to believe.

Undoubtedly, the Hornets look to be headed in the wrong direction, losing 4 out of their last 5 and looking unimpressive in their one win in that stretch.  Moreover, other than what might look like an anomalous win against the Spurs, their last set of wins before that five game stretch? Victories against the Clippers, Kings, Grizzlies, Warriors, T-Wolves, Bucks, Wizards, and Thunder; while in that same time, having lost to the Knicks, Nuggets, Rockets, Bulls, and Hawks.  Not the championship-caliber resume we’ve come to expect from this team, but to be fair, they’ve played most of those games without Peja and Tyson, and several without Posey.  Which is the real team?  The one that we’ve seen on the floor, or the one in our mind’s eye?  We’ll find out starting April 18th.  But I know one thing, they can win tomorrow.

A bittersweet season of ugly victories and Pyrrhic losses, where the rare times we’ve fielded all our starters we’re somewhere in the .667 win percentage, which would put us right behind the Lakers in the standing, but as things stand, we’re desperately clinging onto the sixth seed.  That said, we can still finish anywhere between fourth and eighth.  Significantly, we’ve beaten the Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets, Cavs, Magic, Heat, and just about every other team that is expected to contend, other than the Celtics and Hawks.  We know the Hornets can beat the best, but can they do it in a best of seven series?  I think so.  But we need to be more consistent.

The bottom line is, as much heat as Byron is taking right now, I think it comes down to execution. Byron’s gameplan is set and if guys hit shots and rebound, this team can beat anyone.  I said before Friday’s game that I believed the Hornets could run the table to close the season.  I was wrong.  But I think this team will defend home court.  And here’s the stat that militates in their favor: Tyson is on the final game ticket face.  Here are the stats that no one else talks about: the Hornets’ home record, by ticket face star:

• David West: .875 (7-1)
• Tyson Chandler: .857 (6-1)
• Chris Paul: .667 (6-3)
• Byron Scott: .625 (5-3)
• Peja Stojakovic: .375 (3-5)

Considering that David’s ticket face just lost its first game in two years, I wouldn’t want anyone else’s face on this ticket for the Dallas Mavericks game.  Think this is a “fictional” stat?  Not in pro sports, where players are notoriously superstitious.  Consider this, the worst record of any ticket face last year, and the only one with a losing record, Mo Pete (.400, 2-3), was also, coincidentally, on the Game 7 ticket versus San Antonio.  We all know how that turned out.  And Mo Pete is the only one to appear on last year’s tickets not to appear on this years.  I doubt that is a coincidence.

So, maybe, just maybe, this ticket somehow augurs some cosmic sense of causality, and even if it doesn’t decide the fate of our team per se, it might have a knowing read of the preordained outcome of the game and resultant the Western Conference standings.  Or not.  As you can see from the above, Tyson’s mere presence doesn’t guarantee a win, but it puts the odds in our favor.  Believe it.

A huge story in the NBA this year is the international effect on the game.  Big free agents going overseas, us bringing back the best of those countries, creating a unique state of flux in international talent.  Although USA has again come to dominate the FIBA scene, there is an unprecedented international appeal for the sport, and even multinational blogging (visit our links to Chinese and German Hornets sites on the right under “All Hornets International,” and let us know if you’re aware of any more).  But no international story has been bigger than China.

First of all, there was the Olympics, which was a smashing success.  China proved to be a great venue, the world showed it could field a lot of talent, and it was a lot of fun to watch a variety of teams, not just the U.S.  Also, there was the outcry about how Chinese voters influenced the All-Star starting line-ups; but, when you leave it to democracy, you have to accept how the people vote.  I just love how excited another country is about the NBA, which, in the end, will only be good for basketball.  Lastly, there was the interesting story of ex-Hornet, Bonzi Wells, going to Shanxi Zhongyu, averaging 34 points a game, hitting 50 and 40 points routinely, pulling down over 10 boards usually, and being nicknamed “His Majesty.”  Great stuff.

And what else?  Oh yeah, China loves HornetsHype.com.  That’s right.  China wants to know more about Rasual “Phoenix” Butler.  China wants to know why Chris Paul should be MVP.  If you don’t believe me, check out these links:

• http://bbs.hoopchina.com/563864.html
• http://bbs.hoopchina.com/567096.html

There it is.  Yao may be huge in China. So is Yi.  But the most populous country in the world is hungry for Hornets news.  Believe it.  Welcome to the Hype, China, we love your interest in the NBA.  It’s faaaaAAAAaaantastic!

This is a public service announcement for the national basketball media. You are allowed to talk about Rasual Butler. No, seriously. I officially give you permission.

I’ve been mulling over this post in my mind for some time, thinking, “Damn, we should really do a post on the resurgence of ‘Sual this year,” but the moment it leapt to the forefront of our priority list was when I was watching the NBA on TNT last week. I’ve already ranted a bit on Charles Barkley’s rather uninformed comments about the team, but what really got me was how dismissive he was of Butler. Actually, he didn’t even seem to know that he was starting for the Hornets. And never mind the disparaging snarky comments I’ve heard from several different announcing teams, “Well, I guess you have to wonder with the Hornets how far you’re going to get when you have Rasual Butler starting, ho ho ho.”

OK, freeze. Rewind.

Last season around this time was when Byron Scott finally gave up on Butler. Hornets fans breathed a sigh of relief. Finally we could stop cringing as #45 launched up brick after brick. It was almost inexplicable, how a player’s shot could so thoroughly desert him. It was like Devin Brown in November/December of this season, but worse. (If you want a full perspective on how bad I am talking about, at one point Brown was shooting 15% from three. So we are talking bad.) Butler didn’t even suit up for the playoffs. He only played in 51 games, for an average of 17 minutes per game, most of those minutes in the beginning of the season before it became apparent how brutally awful of a year he was having. He averaged 4.9 points per game over the course of his truncated season. Add an offseason gun arrest into the mix, and Hornets fans were left wondering if there was a way to trade a guy who had zero value and made $3.6 million.

OK, stop. Fast forward.

In 2008-09 the man Hornets fans have begun to refer to as “The Phoenix” is starting for the Hornets. (Helpful hint to the national media, who seem to be having trouble locating him: He is the dude out in the corner who is not Chris Paul, David West, Tyson Chandler, or Peja Stojakovic.) He plays a career high 30 minutes a game and averages 11.2 points. The fact is, Rasual Butler is doing a better job than Morris Peterson (8.0 PPG) ever did last season. And in 2009, he has absolutely been lighting it up.

Check this: Over the Hornets’ last 10 games, ‘Sual Bop is averaging 18.2 points per game on .496 shooting. Your resident fact checka is here to inform you that that’s a better percentage than Kobe Bryant and Ray Allen are currently shooting over the same 10 game split.

So he’s not one of the top shooting guards in the league. Like, whoo. Who does your team start at the 2? OK, don’t answer that question. I realize the Hornets have a different situation than many NBA teams. The fact is that not every team has a Chris Paul, whereas there are many dominant shooting guards in the league. Of course if you’ve got one, the offense is going to be run through him. So when you go to evaluate a guy like Rasual Butler, who effectively plays the role of the 4th or 5th wheel on the Hornets, as opposed to other 2 guards who are a bigger part of the offense, you will need to make some adjustments. At the Hive has done the numbers on this, analyzing where Butler fits in with other shooting guards when you adjust for usage rate. (The answer is 2nd in the league, behind Utah’s Ronnie Brewer, making ‘Sual a pretty efficient dude for the touches he gets.)

Too bad he’s like the Invisible Man over here.

I’m not asking you to proclaim him the next big star or anything like that. I’m just asking you to recognize that here’s a guy who, at the age of 29, is quietly playing the best basketball of his life. But you know, maybe it’s OK that everyone’s not talking about Rasual Butler. You just go right ahead and leave him open to swish shots over your head. Maybe it’s enough that Hornets fans recognize and appreciate him. And honestly, we might understand him a little more, and on a little deeper level, than the average NBA observer anyway. His success this year, while uplifting, means more to us than to you.

In New Orleans, we know a little something about rising from the ashes.

I should get one. What would it look like?

Kinda slow on the uptake, a little depressed, and with a goofy “it wasn’t me!” grin? Why, Pose, why?

We need to put an APB out on the Hornets bench. Like now. Lost: one bench. Age: 23-33. Height: 6′8″ish, on the average. Ethnicity: mostly African American, with a touch of Iowa and Kiwi. Last seen: In the second quarter, looking sheepish. If found, please return to Verizon Center, 601 F Street NW, Washington, DC. Before tomorrow afternoon if possible.

But since it’s always nice to end with something funny after you talk about something horrifyingly bad, here: go  over to Ball Don’t Lie and caption this photo of Shocked!DWest.

The only Twitter feed on our site right now is TT6’s, but you may have noticed she put up a link to where you can find my Twitter feed too, over on the right sidebar.  In case you missed it, you can follow me @ mW_.  I usually tweet from the games and try to pick up on stuff that you can’t see on television.

I also try to keep up with other NBA bloggers and tweeters and re-tweet the best stuff they do that you might not catch.  Well, I’ll be at it tonight at the Hive against the Thunder.  Go Hornets!

We are three games into the Second Tyson Era.  We have three wins to show for it, and three monster performances from Mr. Chandler, who wants to show you, Jeff Bower, and the world that he still has it.  As for Chris Paul and David West, two superstars who were vocally opposed to his departure and even more vocally ecstatic about having Tyson back?  Monster games in his absence (albeit, due to injury, but nonetheless after word of the trade was made public), to show the world that with the team on their backs they would carry it.

But with Tyson back on the floor?  We have a young core of Paul, West, and Chandler.  Three against the world.  Add to that a savvy, sharp-shooting veteran in Peja Stojakovic, and a resurgent Rasual Butler hitting from everywhere and an aggressive defender.  Not to mention former-starter Morris Peterson coming off the bench alongside the roughshod championship swagger of James Posey.  This has not only the makings of a championship team, but a dynasty team.  Coach Scott has gotten this team playing well together and they have great chemistry on and off the field.  Moreover, they are all well-known as good people, who stay out of trouble, and contribute to their community.

So I ask you, Mr. Shinn: what will it take to keep this team together?  Tell them.  Tell us.  We know that as of right now, the team salary will be over the luxury tax next year.  Fine.  So how much money do you need to make to make it worth your while?  Throw down the gauntlet.  What if the team makes the second round of the Playoffs?  How much more income would that bring you?  The Western Conference Finals?  The NBA Finals?  What would it take?  Tell the team.  Challenge them.  You might be surprised.

How about us?  The Fans?  We’re already averaging above 97% seat capacity at home games.  What more can we do?  Should the dollar beers at the pre-game Buzzfest cost two dollars?  Are we not buying enough merchandise?  Chris Paul’s merchandise is the fourth most popular League-wide.  Is it because we haven’t bought more Butler jerseys?  Should we have bought matching shorts?  T-shirts?  Is buying two drinks inside the arena instead of three doing it?  Tell us.

I think you’d find that the people of New Orleans have embraced the Hornets and have come to love them as one of their own, as if they were born and raised here.  That’s just the kind of city this is.  So maybe you should talk to us.  All of us.  Don’t just implode the team that you and Mr. Bower and Coach Scott have so masterfully built just because we started a little slow this year.  We understand there are fiscal realities, but look how long Denver gave Iverson and Anthony to gel before calling it quits.   Prove your critics wrong by showing you have what it takes to be a championship owner.  But if you want, put some of the onus on us.

I know that, personally, I’d do whatever it takes to keep our core together.  I love these guys.  I believe they will win this city a championship.  Maybe even more than one.  The NBA is prone to having multi-championship winners once a team evolves to that level of play.  And, honestly, who else would you rather build a winner around than Chris Paul?  He and this team are your future investment.  They will bring the returns you’re looking for.  They just need the chance.

So while we will root for the Hornets rabidly, knowing this could be their last year together, knowing that the summer could bring a heart-breaking roster implosion, and we expect the guys to play like it’s their last year together and give 141%, we ask you again: what will it take to keep this team together?

You told us all to have Passion, Purpose, and Pride.  We do.  Our team does.  But do you?  Or is it just about the almighty dollar?

As many of you all know, TT6 and I have been busy during Mardi Gras, parading, carousing, and such.  Plenty of celebrities in town.  Kid Rock pointed at us.  We caught beads and doubloons from Val Kilmer.  But our biggest surprise was meeting Axl Rose and his mate, Buckethead, and finding out that Axl is a huge basketball fan, who despite calling L.A. home,  knew a lot about the Hornets, and the NBA in general.  It was obvious he’d been out partying a bit, but was interesting, nonetheless.  Here’s how it went:

Hornets Hype: so you say you’ve watched several Hornets games this seasor.  Do you feel like our team is underachieving?

Axl Rose: They’re Scraped.  Some may convince you no one can break through; I’m here to tell you you’re worth more than they tell you.

Hornets Hype: I agree.  I agree.  What about this whole Tyson Chandler trade thing?  Any comment on that?

Axl Rose:  You’ll be Better.  [Swaying a bit.]  So bittersweet this tragedy; won’t ask for absolution.  A twist of faith, a change of heart, . . . a broken heart provides the spark for . . .  determination.

Hornets Hype:  Yeah, I think TC will come back strong too.  How about that Chris Paul?  Can you believe he wasn’t MVP last year, or being given more consideration this year for the same?  Do you think he thinks about that?

Axl Rose: Shackler’s Revenge, man.  CP got a wicked demon, his hunger never fades.

Hornets Hype:  Okay.  Sure.  Can you believe he almost didn’t start the All-Star Game this year?

Axl Rose:  Chinese Democracy.  It don’t really matter.  Gonna find out for yourself.

Hornets Hype:  Umm, right, so he looked great in that game, though, right?

Axl Rose:  If The World.  If the world would end today and all the dreams we had would all just drift away, you know there’s nothing more to say.

Hornets Hype:  [Hand over mike, muffled voices.]  Enjoying Mardi Gras, Axl?

Axl Rose:  Sorry.  You don’t know why I won’t act the way you think I should.

Hornets Hype:  What?

Axl Rose: Riad N’ The Bedouins.  Had a plan and thought they’d win.  But I don’t give a fuck ’bout them cause I am crazy.

Hornets Hype:  Well, any more thoughts about the NBA, maybe?  You know, the Lakers?  How do the we stop them come playoffs time?

Axl Rose: I.R.S.  Gonna call the IRS…read it baby with your morning new, with a sweet hangover, and the headlines too.

Hornets Hype:  you’re suggesting the Lakers don’t pay their taxes.  Or maybe Phil?  Seriously?  Any on-court suggestions?

Axl Rose: [Does slithering snake-like move.]

Hornets Hype: What do you think of Lebron?  Everyone likes to talk about him.

Axl Rose: Prostitute.  Oh I got a message for you.  Up and away.  It’s what I gotta do.

Hornets Hype:  Well thanks for talking, I guess.  Any parting thoughts?

Axl Rose: Patience. Anything Goes.  Knockin’ On Heaven’s Door.

Hornets Hype:  Okay.  Laissez les bon temps rouler!

And that was it.  Axl and Buckethead walked away after that.  Buckethead was wearing a Popeye’s bucket on his head for the occasion, not the regular KFC one.  Peace out.  Beat the Kings!